“An employer”, said a bonkers but wise barrister to me, once, “has the most dangerous job in Britain”. I laughed it off at the time, but have found myself checking in with this on a regular basis in the last 4 years. I would certainly say that, in 2024, an employer in hospitality has one of the most perilous jobs in Britain. 

We’ve been through a lot, collectively. And, to offer another perennially wise quote, this time from Mr Buffett: “when the tide goes out…..”*. Covid and lockdown was one such tidal wash; 2024 another. This year has, without doubt, been the most challenging in my sector within the 24 years of my experience. That’s not to decry 2008, 2016 (Brexit), and of course 2020-2022. Yet each of those pinch points seemed finite: 2024 seems to me to be the start of a new pattern in hospitality in this country - you are going to see changes in product from the survivors and you are going to make changes in your behaviour as customers. 

The recent budget can be viewed as a correction and a reset. I get the need for a dramatic recalibration of resources, and it’s not as though the pain isn’t spread around. The pain, in my own business, is something in the region of £15,000 p.a net off the bottom line, before accounting for the min wage increase and its knock on consequences. That’s as a small business with no more than 20 employees at any time. It’s major, but if I can take it for a couple of years I may be rewarded. Those two years are, however, going to be rough all round (and not just for hospitality).

Ah! Employees. You, the consumer, will have noticed something in your diminishing use of bars, restaurants, hotels and cafes: the staff. Hospitality is performed in the round; everyone from kitchen to cleaner, greeter to eater is part of the picture and that picture needs to be right in every detail. At our best, we give you the illusion that it’s second nature; easy, spontaneous and joyful. The clue is in the actual name: ‘hospitality’. When a business can’t deliver those factors, it’s not hospitable at all. If you come away from an experience feeling cheated, as though you didn’t count, a little blue - you may not even be able to put your finger on it - that’s when the veil has slipped. Everything in this sector comes back to people: and that is why I think the future of hospitality in this country is fragile but not broken.

One: some employers are lucky enough to have long-term and professional staff. People that buy into the individual culture of our business and have independent roles and relationships within the business and with guests. I’m lucky enough for this to account for most of our team, but I know this is rare. Two: since 2016, there has been a desperate lack of incoming enthusiasm into this sector. It is a fact, generally acknowledged, that few if any English teens think hospitality is even a ‘proper’ job. Come on Gen Alpha: I know 2020-22 was rough for you and us together, but when are you going to come out of your bedrooms? How many of you pull the duvet over your head on a Saturday morning and call in sick? Do I risk another one of you on payroll? Prove me wrong, please.

Three: you. You are critical to the survival of hospitality, and to what it looks like. On you, the whole landscape depends. What do you want when you go out? Think about it carefully, and use your power wisely. Again, I think we (on the other side of the menus) have about two years juice to see if the new economic regime bears fruit. Will anyone ever go out for more than a pizza and burger again? Will anyone ever stay for the night, well….just because! Or walk into a bar on their own for a Martini made ‘their way’ because the bar staff know exactly what that is? I know that all of this depends on you feeling secure; thus the tightrope is stretched across the unknown. All I can personally do to get us across the ravine is what I do now: mix an obsession for detail with a determined optimism that the human spirit both young and (a little) older will seek out company and good service as the tide rises again.

Fast forward a couple of years and I think we will see fewer but more distinct independent restaurants, bars, hotels. They will be confident in what they’re about and why you should be there. They will have distilled their essence into something clear and you should know before you enter what you’re getting. Menus will be shorter, prices will be marginally higher but not off-putting or disproportionate. Most importantly, and this is non negotiable, the staff will be professional, invested and in it for the long term. Hey: you might even choose us over one of the chains, which will - I am sure - still be exactly the same. 

”when the tide goes out you find out who has been swimming naked”* Warren Buffett